International Monetary Fund cuts Portugal growth forecast


The global lender also warned that it may cut the growth outlook further if the risks worsen. China should prefer on-budget fiscal measures to support growth if needed rather than rolling back the deleveraging process because doing so "would accumulate vulnerabilities for the long run", Milesi-Ferretti said.

This is Gita Gopinath's first flagship report after she took over this year as the IMF's chief economist. -China trade tensions, macroeconomic stress in Turkey and Argentina, tighter credit policies in China and financial tightening plus a normalisation of monetary policy in advanced economies.

The challenge to policymakers is they have little ammunition with which to counteract a slowdown since interest rates are low and most central banks already have stopped raising or started cutting rates, while debt levels are high, crimping the ability to provide fiscal stimulus. The world engaged in co-ordinated fiscal stimulus to counter the 2008 financial crisis. The projections for all the three years are 0.2 percent lower than earlier estimates made in January. HSBC's projection is higher than the Chinese government's forecast of between 6.0 percent and 6.5 percent.

More than two-thirds of the expected slowdown in 2019 stems from troubles in rich nations, including members of the EU.

International Monetary Fund noted that the balance of risks to the global outlook are tilted towards downside but if US-China trade differences are resolved quickly, it could surprise global growth favourably due to improved business confidence and better investor sentiment.

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One potential misstep lies in Britain's indecision over how to leave the EU.

However, the fund downgraded China's economic growth for 2020 to 6.1 percent from its previous projection of 6.2 percent.

According to the IMF's report, Canada's economy grew by 1.8 per cent in 2018, 3 per cent in 2017 and 1.1 per cent in 2016.

"Excessive stimulus to support near-term growth through a loosening of credit standards, or a resurgence of shadow banking activity and off-budget infrastructure spending, would heighten financial vulnerabilities, reduce future policy space, and raise downside risks to medium-term growth", the International Monetary Fund said.

The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday worsened its forecast for Iran's recession as U.S. sanctions bite, with Tehran's slump denting overall growth in the Middle East and North Africa.

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The growth in advanced economies, however, is expected to slow as the impact of USA fiscal stimulus fades.

U.S. Treasury yields slid on concerns about the global economic outlook, which also weighed on U.S. stocks. "Growth in advanced economies will slow slightly in 2020, despite a partial recovery in the euro area, as the impact of United States fiscal stimulus fades and growth tends toward the modest potential for the group, given aging trends and low productivity growth". It is the lowest annual growth outlook since the Great Recession of 2008. "From everything we see, we see for the next few years still strong, robust USA growth".

The global lender's semi-annual World Economic Report pointed to the US-China trade dispute and a potentially disorderly British exit from the European Union as key risks, and warned that chances of further cuts to the outlook were high.

"The IMF said that global growth is set to plateau at about 3.6 percent over the medium term beyond 2020, sustained by the increase in the relative size of economies, such as those of China and India, which are projected to have robust growth by comparison to slower-growing advanced and emerging market economies (even though Chinese growth will eventually moderate)", the report said. -China trade war did not materialize. Global powerhouse China did not make the cut into the top 10.

The projected recovery reflects modestly reduced but continued policy uncertainty in the South African economy after the May 2019 elections.

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